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Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Miller vs Matt Horwich

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

14-8-0Record30-25-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamLegends MMA

What's at stake

Dan Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Horwich carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan MillerNow 1687
If they win+11→ 1698
If they lose-21→ 1666
Matt HorwichNow 1566
If they win+16→ 1582
If they lose-8→ 1558

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.03
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
36%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
50%
Strike defense
Not available
1.67
Takedown avg.
Not available
55%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
47%
Takedown defense
Not available
1.77
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Dan MillerMatt Horwich
15501600165017002014201520162017

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
6 (20%)
9 (64%)
Submission
21 (70%)
4 (29%)
Decision
3 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Dan Miller74%
Matt Horwich 26%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Dan Miller a 74% favorite over Matt Horwich in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Dan Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1566, a 121-point edge.

Dan Miller enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matt Horwich enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Dan Miller finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Matt Horwich 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.