Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Miller vs Nate Marquardt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-8-0Record36-20-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts

What's at stake

Dan Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan MillerNow 1687
If they win+14→ 1701
If they lose-18→ 1669
Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+13→ 1664
If they lose-11→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.03
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
36%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
50%
Strike defense
56%
1.67
Takedown avg.
1.87
55%
Takedown accuracy
51%
47%
Takedown defense
71%
1.77
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Dan MillerNate Marquardt
1650170020142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
13 (36%)
9 (64%)
Submission
15 (42%)
4 (29%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Dan Miller72%
Nate Marquardt 28%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Dan Miller a 72% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Dan Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1651, a 36-point edge.

Dan Miller enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dan Miller finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.