Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Miller vs Rousimar Palhares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-8-0Record19-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamTeam Nogueira

What's at stake

Dan Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rousimar Palhares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan MillerNow 1687
If they win+10→ 1697
If they lose-22→ 1665
Rousimar PalharesNow 1544
If they win+17→ 1561
If they lose-7→ 1537

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.03
Sig. strikes / min
1.75
36%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.04
50%
Strike defense
60%
1.67
Takedown avg.
3.93
55%
Takedown accuracy
46%
47%
Takedown defense
0%
1.77
Submission avg.
4.11

Trajectory

Dan MillerRousimar Palhares
155016001650170020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
9 (64%)
Submission
16 (84%)
4 (29%)
Decision
3 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Dan Miller83%
Rousimar Palhares 17%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Dan Miller a 83% favorite over Rousimar Palhares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Dan Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1544, a 143-point edge.

Dan Miller enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rousimar Palhares enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Dan Miller finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Rousimar Palhares 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.