Dan Miller vs Trevor Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-8-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReach41,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Dan Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Trevor Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1699
If they lose-20→ 1667
If they win+20→ 1621
If they lose-12→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1665 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dan MillerTrevor Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Miller62%
Trevor Smith 38%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Miller a 62% favorite over Trevor Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Dan Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1601, a 86-point edge.
Dan Miller enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dan Miller finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.