Dan Severn vs Joe Charles
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
101-19-7Record6-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
253 lbsWeight260 lbs
The Beast AcademyTeam
What's at stake
Dan Severn is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Joe Charles carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+3→ 1718
If they lose-21→ 1694
If they win+27→ 1433
If they lose-5→ 1401
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1484 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dan SevernJoe Charles
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Severn77%
Joe Charles 23%Elo baseline: 86%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Severn a 77% favorite over Joe Charles in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (86%).
Dan Severn holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1406, a 309-point edge.
Joe Charles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dan Severn finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Joe Charles 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.