Dan Severn vs Ryan Spann
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
101-19-7Record24-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'5"
TBDReach79"
253 lbsWeight205 lbs
The Beast AcademyTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1727
If they lose-12→ 1703
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1484 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan SevernRyan Spann
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Spann66%
Dan Severn 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Spann a 66% favorite over Dan Severn in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dan Severn's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1710), separated by just 5 points.
Ryan Spann enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dan Severn finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Spann 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.