Dan Stittgen vs Marcelo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-9-0Record9-2-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Midwest Training CenterTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Marcelo Guimaraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Dan Stittgen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+34→ 1488
If they lose-14→ 1440
If they win+9→ 1615
If they lose-23→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcelo Guimaraes75%
Dan Stittgen 25%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcelo Guimaraes a 75% favorite over Dan Stittgen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Marcelo Guimaraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1606 to 1454, a 152-point edge.
Marcelo Guimaraes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dan Stittgen finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Marcelo Guimaraes 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.