Dan Stittgen vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-9-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Midwest Training CenterTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Stephen Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Dan Stittgen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+39→ 1493
If they lose-9→ 1445
If they win+6→ 1708
If they lose-26→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan StittgenStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephen Thompson78%
Dan Stittgen 22%Elo baseline: 81%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Thompson a 78% favorite over Dan Stittgen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).
Stephen Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1454, a 248-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dan Stittgen finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.