Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Barez vs Jafel Filho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-8-0Record17-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Entram GymTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Jafel Filho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Daniel Barez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel BarezNow 1594
If they win+19→ 1613
If they lose-13→ 1581
Jafel FilhoNow 1669
If they win+13→ 1682
If they lose-19→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.65
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
50%
Strike accuracy
42%
5.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.62
50%
Strike defense
50%
1.93
Takedown avg.
2.52
29%
Takedown accuracy
45%
80%
Takedown defense
67%
0.64
Submission avg.
2.24

Trajectory

Daniel BarezJafel Filho
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (41%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
6 (35%)
Submission
11 (65%)
4 (24%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Jafel Filho67%
Daniel Barez 33%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Jafel Filho a 67% favorite over Daniel Barez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Jafel Filho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1594, a 75-point edge.

Daniel Barez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Daniel Barez finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Jafel Filho 94%.

Jafel Filho carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.