Daniel Cormier vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-3-0Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
72"Reach79"
251 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Daniel Cormier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Derrick Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1848
If they lose-20→ 1816
If they win+15→ 1760
If they lose-9→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1773 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Daniel CormierDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis60%
Daniel Cormier 40%Elo baseline: 37%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 60% favorite over Daniel Cormier in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Cormier's way (37%).
Daniel Cormier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1836 to 1745, a 91-point edge.
Daniel Cormier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Daniel Cormier finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Derrick Lewis carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.