Daniel Cormier vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-3-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'0"
72"Reach72,0"
251 lbsWeight249 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Daniel Cormier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1844
If they lose-24→ 1812
If they win+18→ 1650
If they lose-6→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1773 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Daniel CormierRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniel Cormier74%
Roy Nelson 26%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Cormier a 74% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Daniel Cormier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1836 to 1632, a 204-point edge.
Daniel Cormier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Daniel Cormier finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Daniel Cormier and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Derrick Lewis.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.