Daniel Kelly vs Derek Brunson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record24-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
70,5"Reach77,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Daniel Kelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1719
If they lose-14→ 1687
If they win+10→ 1765
If they lose-14→ 1741
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel KellyDerek Brunson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derek Brunson78%
Daniel Kelly 22%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 78% favorite over Daniel Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1701, a 54-point edge.
Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Derek Brunson 67%.
Daniel Kelly and Derek Brunson share 1 common opponent: Elias Theodorou.
Derek Brunson carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.