Daniel Kelly vs Elias Theodorou
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record19-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
70,5"Reach75,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamKros Gym
What's at stake
Elias Theodorou is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Daniel Kelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1720
If they lose-13→ 1688
If they win+13→ 1785
If they lose-19→ 1753
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel KellyElias Theodorou
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Elias Theodorou83%
Daniel Kelly 17%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Elias Theodorou a 83% favorite over Daniel Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Elias Theodorou holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1772 to 1701, a 71-point edge.
Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Elias Theodorou enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Elias Theodorou 47%.
Daniel Kelly and Elias Theodorou share 2 common opponents: Derek Brunson and Sam Alvey.
Elias Theodorou carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.