Daniel Kelly vs Joilton Lutterbach
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record38-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
70,5"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1717
If they lose-16→ 1685
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-12→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel KellyJoilton Lutterbach
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joilton Lutterbach64%
Daniel Kelly 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joilton Lutterbach a 64% favorite over Daniel Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1701 vs 1702), separated by just 1 points.
Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Joilton Lutterbach 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.