Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Kelly vs Luke Zachrich

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record14-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
70,5"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamRonin Training Center

What's at stake

Daniel Kelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Luke Zachrich carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel KellyNow 1701
If they win+13→ 1714
If they lose-19→ 1682
Luke ZachrichNow 1643
If they win+19→ 1662
If they lose-13→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.62
Sig. strikes / min
4.56
39%
Strike accuracy
33%
4.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.46
62%
Strike defense
63%
1.86
Takedown avg.
0.74
34%
Takedown accuracy
33%
79%
Takedown defense
80%
0.31
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Daniel KellyLuke Zachrich
165017001750201320142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
5 (38%)
Submission
6 (43%)
5 (38%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Kelly54%
Luke Zachrich 46%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Kelly a 54% favorite over Luke Zachrich in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Daniel Kelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1643, a 58-point edge.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Luke Zachrich 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.