Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Kelly vs Michał Oleksiejczuk

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record22-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
70,5"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamAkademia Sportow Walki Wilanow

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniel KellyNow 1701
If they win+16→ 1717
If they lose-16→ 1685
Michał OleksiejczukNow 1705
If they win+12→ 1717
If they lose-12→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.62
Sig. strikes / min
5.85
39%
Strike accuracy
53%
4.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
62%
Strike defense
60%
1.86
Takedown avg.
1.02
34%
Takedown accuracy
42%
79%
Takedown defense
53%
0.31
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Daniel KellyMichał Oleksiejczuk
1700175020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
16 (73%)
5 (38%)
Submission
1 (5%)
5 (38%)
Decision
5 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Michał Oleksiejczuk88%
Daniel Kelly 12%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Michał Oleksiejczuk a 88% favorite over Daniel Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1701 vs 1705), separated by just 4 points.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Michał Oleksiejczuk 77%.

Michał Oleksiejczuk carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.