Daniel Kelly vs Rashad Evans
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record20-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height5'11"
70,5"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Daniel Kelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Rashad Evans carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1716
If they lose-17→ 1684
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel KellyRashad Evans
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rashad Evans53%
Daniel Kelly 47%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Rashad Evans a 53% favorite over Daniel Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Kelly's way (46%).
Daniel Kelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1674, a 27-point edge.
Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Rashad Evans 45%.
Daniel Kelly and Rashad Evans share 1 common opponent: Sam Alvey.
Rashad Evans carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.