Daniel Kelly vs Tom Breese
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record21-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
70,5"Reach73.5"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamTeam Renegade· 1736 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Daniel Kelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tom Breese carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1716
If they lose-17→ 1684
If they win+13→ 1694
If they lose-11→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1649 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Daniel KellyTom Breese
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Breese61%
Daniel Kelly 39%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 61% favorite over Daniel Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Kelly's way (47%).
Daniel Kelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1681, a 20-point edge.
Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 90%.
Tom Breese carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.