Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Kelly vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record18-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
70,5"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

Daniel Kelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Tom Breese carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel KellyNow 1701
If they win+14→ 1715
If they lose-18→ 1683
Tom BreeseNow 1662
If they win+13→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.62
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
39%
Strike accuracy
51%
4.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
62%
Strike defense
61%
1.86
Takedown avg.
0
34%
Takedown accuracy
0%
79%
Takedown defense
71%
0.31
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Daniel KellyTom Breese
16501700175020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
5 (38%)
Submission
12 (67%)
5 (38%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Breese53%
Daniel Kelly 47%Elo baseline: 44%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 53% favorite over Daniel Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Kelly's way (44%).

Daniel Kelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1662, a 39-point edge.

Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Tom Breese enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.