Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Lacerda vs Francisco Figueiredo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record13-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTeam Figueiredo

What's at stake

Francisco Figueiredo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Daniel Lacerda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel LacerdaNow 1507
If they win+19→ 1526
If they lose-13→ 1494
Francisco FigueiredoNow 1576
If they win+13→ 1589
If they lose-19→ 1557

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.04
46%
Strike accuracy
62%
8.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
35%
Strike defense
62%
2.32
Takedown avg.
2.51
50%
Takedown accuracy
75%
0%
Takedown defense
76%
1.16
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Daniel LacerdaFrancisco Figueiredo
15001550160020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
7 (58%)
Submission
8 (62%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Figueiredo64%
Daniel Lacerda 36%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Figueiredo a 64% favorite over Daniel Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Francisco Figueiredo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1576 to 1507, a 69-point edge.

Daniel Lacerda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Figueiredo 85%.

Daniel Lacerda carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.