Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Lacerda vs Jeff Molina

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record11-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
70"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamGlory MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

Jeff Molina is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Daniel Lacerda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel LacerdaNow 1507
If they win+24→ 1531
If they lose-8→ 1499
Jeff MolinaNow 1692
If they win+8→ 1700
If they lose-24→ 1668

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.95
Sig. strikes / min
7.25
46%
Strike accuracy
48%
8.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.04
35%
Strike defense
56%
2.32
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
67%
1.16
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Daniel LacerdaJeff Molina
1500155016001650170020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
7 (58%)
Submission
4 (36%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeff Molina90%
Daniel Lacerda 10%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeff Molina a 90% favorite over Daniel Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Jeff Molina holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1507, a 185-point edge.

Jeff Molina enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Daniel Lacerda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jeff Molina 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.