Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Omielanczuk vs Timothy Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-14-1Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74,0"Reach77.50
254 lbsWeight266 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Daniel Omielanczuk is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Timothy Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel OmielanczukNow 1614
If they win+11→ 1625
If they lose-13→ 1601
Timothy JohnsonNow 1586
If they win+26→ 1612
If they lose-22→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.09
Sig. strikes / min
3.43
57%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.08
48%
Strike defense
44%
0.56
Takedown avg.
1.09
27%
Takedown accuracy
24%
68%
Takedown defense
69%
0.14
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Daniel OmielanczukTimothy Johnson
15501600165020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

6 (23%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
10 (38%)
Submission
3 (17%)
10 (38%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Timothy Johnson61%
Daniel Omielanczuk 39%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Timothy Johnson a 61% favorite over Daniel Omielanczuk in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Omielanczuk's way (46%).

Daniel Omielanczuk holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1614 to 1586, a 28-point edge.

Daniel Omielanczuk finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Timothy Johnson 72%.

Timothy Johnson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.