Daniel Pineda vs Justin Lawrence
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-17-0Record11-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
4oz. Fight Club· 1606 avg Elo · 9 ratedTeamPower MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1607
If they lose-12→ 1583
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Daniel PinedaJustin Lawrence
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Lawrence55%
Daniel Pineda 45%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Lawrence a 55% favorite over Daniel Pineda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1604), separated by just 9 points.
Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniel Pineda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin Lawrence 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.