Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-17-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
4oz. Fight Club· 1653 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamGround Control
What's at stake
Tucker Lutz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Daniel Pineda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1607
If they lose-10→ 1583
If they win+14→ 1659
If they lose-18→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tucker Lutz73%
Daniel Pineda 27%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Tucker Lutz a 73% favorite over Daniel Pineda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Tucker Lutz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1593, a 52-point edge.
Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniel Pineda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tucker Lutz 67%.
Tucker Lutz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.