Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Machado Garry
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record17-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach74"
184 lbsWeight170 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
Ian Machado Garry is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Daniel Rodriguez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1746
If they lose-9→ 1722
If they win+12→ 1827
If they lose-20→ 1795
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1775 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel RodriguezIan Machado Garry
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry81%
Daniel Rodriguez 19%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 81% favorite over Daniel Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Ian Machado Garry holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1731, a 84-point edge.
Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Ian Machado Garry 47%.
Daniel Rodriguez and Ian Machado Garry share 1 common opponent: Neil Magny.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.