Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Rodriguez vs Jake Shields

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-6-0Record33-11-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
184 lbsWeight170 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniel RodriguezNow 1731
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719
Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+12→ 1746
If they lose-12→ 1722

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.20
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
49%
Strike accuracy
32%
5.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.50
58%
Strike defense
56%
0.51
Takedown avg.
1.19
50%
Takedown accuracy
12%
64%
Takedown defense
36%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.12

Trajectory

Daniel RodriguezJake Shields
170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (45%)
KO/TKO
3 (9%)
4 (20%)
Submission
12 (36%)
7 (35%)
Decision
18 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Rodriguez71%
Jake Shields 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Rodriguez a 71% favorite over Jake Shields in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jake Shields's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1731 vs 1734), separated by just 3 points.

Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Jake Shields 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.