Daniel Rodriguez vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-5-0Record20-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
74"Reach77"
184 lbsWeight170 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Daniel Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kevin Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1758
If they lose-13→ 1734
If they win+13→ 1724
If they lose-11→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel RodriguezKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniel Rodriguez53%
Kevin Lee 47%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Rodriguez a 53% favorite over Kevin Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Daniel Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1747 to 1711, a 36-point edge.
Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Kevin Lee carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.