Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Rodriguez vs Pawel Pawlak

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-6-0Record23-4-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
184 lbsWeight185 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamOctopus Lodz

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniel RodriguezNow 1731
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719
Pawel PawlakNow 1732
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.20
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
49%
Strike accuracy
34%
5.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.22
58%
Strike defense
54%
0.51
Takedown avg.
1
50%
Takedown accuracy
38%
64%
Takedown defense
70%
0.08
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Daniel RodriguezPawel Pawlak
1700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (45%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
4 (20%)
Submission
3 (13%)
7 (35%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Rodriguez60%
Pawel Pawlak 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Rodriguez a 60% favorite over Pawel Pawlak in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Pawel Pawlak's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1731 vs 1732), separated by just 1 points.

Pawel Pawlak enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Pawel Pawlak 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.