Daniel Rodriguez vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record30-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"Reach73″
184 lbsWeight170 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Daniel Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Santiago Ponzinibbio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1742
If they lose-13→ 1718
If they win+13→ 1711
If they lose-11→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel RodriguezSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniel Rodriguez67%
Santiago Ponzinibbio 33%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Rodriguez a 67% favorite over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Daniel Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1731 to 1698, a 33-point edge.
Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.
Daniel Rodriguez and Santiago Ponzinibbio share 3 common opponents: Kevin Holland, Alex Morono and Jingliang Li.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.