Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Santos vs John Castañeda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-3-0Record21-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
67"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamThe Academy

What's at stake

John Castañeda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Daniel Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel SantosNow 1645
If they win+18→ 1663
If they lose-14→ 1631
John CastañedaNow 1697
If they win+10→ 1707
If they lose-14→ 1683

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.76
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
41%
Strike accuracy
51%
5.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.94
51%
Strike defense
54%
3.01
Takedown avg.
1.68
40%
Takedown accuracy
37%
73%
Takedown defense
74%
0
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Daniel SantosJohn Castañeda
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (38%)
2 (14%)
Submission
6 (29%)
5 (36%)
Decision
7 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Daniel Santos and John Castañeda within a point of even.

John Castañeda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1645, a 52-point edge.

Daniel Santos finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.

John Castañeda carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.