Daniel Sarafian vs Joaquin Garcia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record3-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight175 lbs
Power MMATeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Daniel Sarafian is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Joaquin Garcia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1595
If they lose-17→ 1563
If they win+26→ 1574
If they lose-22→ 1526
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel SarafianJoaquin Garcia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joaquin Garcia70%
Daniel Sarafian 30%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Garcia a 70% favorite over Daniel Sarafian in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Sarafian's way (45%).
Daniel Sarafian holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1580 to 1548, a 32-point edge.
Daniel Sarafian enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Daniel Sarafian finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Joaquin Garcia 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.