Daniil Donchenko vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record36-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
71"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamBMF Ranch
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1727
If they lose-16→ 1695
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniil DonchenkoDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniil Donchenko88%
Donald Cerrone 12%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniil Donchenko a 88% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1711 vs 1710), separated by just 1 points.
Daniil Donchenko enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Daniil Donchenko finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Daniil Donchenko and Donald Cerrone share 1 common opponent: Alex Morono.
Donald Cerrone carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.