Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniil Donchenko vs Gunnar Nelson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-2-0Record19-6-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
71"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamMjolnir

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniil DonchenkoNow 1711
If they win+16→ 1727
If they lose-16→ 1695
Gunnar NelsonNow 1710
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.15
Sig. strikes / min
1.77
60%
Strike accuracy
61%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
73%
Strike defense
49%
0.77
Takedown avg.
2
33%
Takedown accuracy
52%
75%
Takedown defense
68%
0
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Daniil DonchenkoGunnar Nelson
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
2 (14%)
Submission
13 (68%)
3 (21%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniil Donchenko66%
Gunnar Nelson 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniil Donchenko a 66% favorite over Gunnar Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1711 vs 1710), separated by just 1 points.

Daniil Donchenko enters on a 7-fight win streak.

Daniil Donchenko finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.