Daniil Donchenko vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record20-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
71"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1727
If they lose-16→ 1695
If they win+12→ 1723
If they lose-12→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniil DonchenkoKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniil Donchenko60%
Kevin Lee 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniil Donchenko a 60% favorite over Kevin Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1711 vs 1711), separated by just 0 points.
Daniil Donchenko enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Daniil Donchenko finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Kevin Lee carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.