Daniil Donchenko vs Paul Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0 Record 14-3-0
Lightweight Division Welterweight
5'11" Height 5'9"
71" Reach 70"
155 lbs Weight 159 lbs
Tiger Muay Thai Team Fight Academy Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1727
If they lose-16→ 1695
If they win+16→ 1728
If they lose-16→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniil Donchenko Paul Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniil Donchenko76%
Paul Hughes24%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniil Donchenko a 76% favorite over Paul Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Hughes's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1711 vs 1712), separated by just 1 points.
Daniil Donchenko enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Daniil Donchenko finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Paul Hughes 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.