Daniil Donchenko vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record23-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
71"Reach76.00
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1740
If they lose-16→ 1708
If they win+12→ 1737
If they lose-12→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1729 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Daniil DonchenkoRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald63%
Daniil Donchenko 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 63% favorite over Daniil Donchenko in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1724 vs 1725), separated by just 1 points.
Daniil Donchenko enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniil Donchenko finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Rory MacDonald carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.