Danilo Belluardo vs Mark Madsen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-6-0Record12-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74,5"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Aurora MMATeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
Mark Madsen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Danilo Belluardo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1580
If they lose-10→ 1548
If they win+10→ 1707
If they lose-22→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danilo BelluardoMark Madsen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Madsen66%
Danilo Belluardo 34%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Madsen a 66% favorite over Danilo Belluardo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Mark Madsen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1558, a 139-point edge.
Mark Madsen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Danilo Belluardo finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Mark Madsen 50%.
Danilo Belluardo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.