Danny Castillo vs Edson Barboza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record24-15-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71,0"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1618
If they lose-10→ 1594
If they win+10→ 1679
If they lose-14→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloEdson Barboza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Edson Barboza74%
Danny Castillo 26%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 74% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1604, a 65-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Edson Barboza 63%.
Edson Barboza carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.