Combat Edge Intelligence

Danny Castillo vs Edson Barboza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-10-0Record24-14-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71,0"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Danny CastilloNow 1604
If they win+15→ 1619
If they lose-9→ 1595
Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+9→ 1691
If they lose-15→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
4.14
42%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
63%
Strike defense
56%
2.95
Takedown avg.
0.43
39%
Takedown accuracy
32%
64%
Takedown defense
73%
0.19
Submission avg.
0.08

Trajectory

Danny CastilloEdson Barboza
160016501700201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (41%)
KO/TKO
14 (58%)
3 (18%)
Submission
1 (4%)
7 (41%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Barboza72%
Danny Castillo 28%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 72% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1604, a 78-point edge.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Edson Barboza 63%.

Edson Barboza carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.