Danny Castillo vs Gino van Steenis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
71,0"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamMMA Vlaardingen· 1680 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Gino van Steenis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1593
If they win+15→ 1643
If they lose-17→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloGino van Steenis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gino van Steenis84%
Danny Castillo 16%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Gino van Steenis a 84% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Gino van Steenis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1628 to 1604, a 24-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gino van Steenis enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Gino van Steenis 56%.
Gino van Steenis carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.