Danny Castillo vs Joe Stevenson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record33-16-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
71,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamJoe Stevenson's Cobra Kai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1616
If they lose-12→ 1592
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloJoe Stevenson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Danny Castillo54%
Joe Stevenson 46%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Danny Castillo a 54% favorite over Joe Stevenson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joe Stevenson's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1612), separated by just 8 points.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Joe Stevenson 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.