Danny Castillo vs John Cholish
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record8-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
John Cholish is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1593
If they win+15→ 1651
If they lose-17→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloJohn Cholish
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Danny Castillo53%
John Cholish 47%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Danny Castillo a 53% favorite over John Cholish in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Cholish's way (45%).
John Cholish holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1604, a 32-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
John Cholish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, John Cholish 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.