Combat Edge Intelligence

Danny Castillo vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-10-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Danny CastilloNow 1604
If they win+12→ 1616
If they lose-12→ 1592
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
42%
Strike accuracy
40%
1.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
63%
Strike defense
59%
2.95
Takedown avg.
0.58
39%
Takedown accuracy
39%
64%
Takedown defense
81%
0.19
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Danny CastilloMichael Johnson
160016502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (41%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
3 (18%)
Submission
2 (8%)
7 (41%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Johnson70%
Danny Castillo 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 70% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1613), separated by just 9 points.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Michael Johnson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.