Danny Castillo vs Nik Lentz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record30-12-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Nik Lentz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1618
If they lose-10→ 1594
If they win+10→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloNik Lentz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nik Lentz75%
Danny Castillo 25%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Nik Lentz a 75% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Nik Lentz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1604, a 66-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Nik Lentz 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.