Danny Castillo vs Paul Sass
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record14-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
71,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Paul Sass is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1619
If they lose-9→ 1595
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-20→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloPaul Sass
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Sass78%
Danny Castillo 22%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Sass a 78% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Paul Sass holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1604, a 78-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Paul Sass 93%.
Danny Castillo and Paul Sass share 1 common opponent: Michael Johnson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.