Danny Castillo vs Shamar Bailey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record16-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamSparta Indy
What's at stake
Danny Castillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Shamar Bailey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1614
If they lose-14→ 1590
If they win+14→ 1564
If they lose-10→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloShamar Bailey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Danny Castillo54%
Shamar Bailey 46%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Danny Castillo a 54% favorite over Shamar Bailey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Danny Castillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1604 to 1550, a 54-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Shamar Bailey enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Shamar Bailey 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.