Danny Castillo vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record33-17-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'2"
71,0"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamFit NHB
What's at stake
Tim Means is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1593
If they win+11→ 1657
If they lose-13→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Means53%
Danny Castillo 47%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Means a 53% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Tim Means holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1604, a 42-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Tim Means carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.