Danny Castillo vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
71,0"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Tony Ferguson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1618
If they lose-10→ 1594
If they win+10→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson70%
Danny Castillo 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 70% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Tony Ferguson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1604, a 55-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Tony Ferguson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.