Danny Chavez vs Kai Kamaka III
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-1Record18-7-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'7"
67"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
MMA MastersTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Kai Kamaka III is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Danny Chavez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1592
If they lose-12→ 1560
If they win+9→ 1679
If they lose-15→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny ChavezKai Kamaka III
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kai Kamaka III75%
Danny Chavez 25%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Kai Kamaka III a 75% favorite over Danny Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Kai Kamaka III holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1572, a 98-point edge.
Kai Kamaka III enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Danny Chavez finishes 27% of wins inside the distance, Kai Kamaka III 22%.
Kai Kamaka III carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.