Danny Chavez vs TJ Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-1Record20-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
67"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
MMA MastersTeamWestside MMA
What's at stake
TJ Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Danny Chavez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1590
If they lose-15→ 1558
If they win+11→ 1613
If they lose-13→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1610 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Danny ChavezTJ Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Brown65%
Danny Chavez 35%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Brown a 65% favorite over Danny Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
TJ Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1602 to 1573, a 29-point edge.
Danny Chavez finishes 27% of wins inside the distance, TJ Brown 80%.
Danny Chavez and TJ Brown share 1 common opponent: Kai Kamaka III.
TJ Brown carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.