Combat Edge Intelligence

Danny Martinez vs Richie Vaculik

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-9-0Record10-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
TBDReach41,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Alliance MMATeamTP Fight Team

What's at stake

Danny Martinez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Richie Vaculik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Danny MartinezNow 1616
If they win+11→ 1627
If they lose-13→ 1603
Richie VaculikNow 1577
If they win+18→ 1595
If they lose-14→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.73
Sig. strikes / min
3.69
29%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.09
64%
Strike defense
57%
3
Takedown avg.
3
45%
Takedown accuracy
45%
37%
Takedown defense
32%
0
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Danny MartinezRichie Vaculik
16001650201520162017

Win method breakdown

9 (43%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
4 (19%)
Submission
6 (60%)
8 (38%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Danny Martinez67%
Richie Vaculik 33%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Danny Martinez a 67% favorite over Richie Vaculik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Danny Martinez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1577, a 39-point edge.

Danny Martinez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Richie Vaculik enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Danny Martinez finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Richie Vaculik 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.