Combat Edge Intelligence

Danny Mitchell vs Igor Araujo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Danny Mitchell

Danny Mitchell

“The Cheesecake Assassin”

20-9-1WelterweightCS

1594Solid

Tale of the tape

20-9-1Record25-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
AVT Fight TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Igor Araujo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Danny Mitchell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Danny MitchellNow 1594
If they win+14→ 1608
If they lose-10→ 1584
Igor AraujoNow 1639
If they win+10→ 1649
If they lose-14→ 1625

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1478 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.53
Sig. strikes / min
1.52
49%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.86
53%
Strike defense
50%
0
Takedown avg.
0.86
0%
Takedown accuracy
16%
100%
Takedown defense
22%
3
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Danny MitchellIgor Araujo
160016502015201620172018

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
1 (4%)
12 (60%)
Submission
17 (68%)
2 (10%)
Decision
7 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Danny Mitchell and Igor Araujo within a point of even.

Igor Araujo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1594, a 45-point edge.

Igor Araujo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Danny Mitchell finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Igor Araujo 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.